Goldman Sachs boosts music industry revenue forecast

The company also increased its forecast for the same figure for 2023 by 5% ($90.7bn to $94.9bn) and 10% ($139.7bn to $153bn) by 2030.

The numbers are based on a recent update to the Music in the Air report, which is compiled by the firm’s research team led by analyst Lisa Yang.

The report says recorded music revenues will grow by 7.7% this year to $27.9bn, while publishing revenues will rise by 7.2% to $7.4bn. The live music market is estimated to bounce back by 85.3% to reach $26.5bn. NFTs did not receive a mention in the report.

The company predicts music streaming revenues will make $37.8bn in 2022 and $89.3bn by 2030. It anticipates a total of 1.26 billion paying subscribers globally by 2030, with emerging markets being home to 758 million (60.2%) of those subscribers and developed markets accounting for 502 million (39.8%).

“We expect consumer spend on music to remain resilient in a higher inflation/weaker macro environment,” the report says. “We compare music streaming vs SVOD [subscription video on demand] streaming in terms of pricing, penetration, churn and usage, and overall believe that music streaming should perform better than SVOD in a weaker macro environment, or potential recession.”

The report adds: “We expect catalogue acquisition spend to slow down in a rising rate environment.”

In 2020, Goldman Sachs offered a sombre outlook reflecting the negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis, with global music revenue dropping by 25% and the live sector tumbling 75%. At the time, the company predicated a strong rebound of the music business over the longer term driven by growth of paid streaming, growing demand for music content and live events, new licensing opportunities, and positive regulatory developments.

Meanwhile, Dataxis recently zoomed in on the African continent, publishing its own prediction about the continent’s music streaming revenues, with an increase of $92.9m in 2021 to $314.6m by 2026. But the majority of revenues will still come from a few African countries, with South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco and Algeria comprising the top five markets in the region at 86%. According to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s Global Music Report 2022, sub-Saharan Africa generated $70.1m of revenues from recorded music in 2021, representing a 9.6% jump year-on-year.